Corona Status Aug 2021 (2nd version)

Lars Poulsen - 2021-08-23

After 8 months, I updated this page last week, and by the next day, I wanted to rewrite it to bring out some points I had realized needed more explanation. And since then, things have moved on even more.

The National Summary

National Graph

New infections per day about 140,000 - which is about 47 per 100,000 population.

Santa Barbara County

Here are local numbers condensed from the county's daily reports.

Week	New Cases	Infectious	In Hosp	In ICU	Dead/Week	New/100K
08/23	83	708	77	15	3	27.0
08/17	112	823	65	12	3	29.4
08/10	86	563	37	7	3	20.9
08/03	52	430	31	5	3	17.0
07/27	53	342	17	3	2	13.7
07/20	32	202	20	6	1	8.1
07/13	16	97	11	3	1	3.8

We were doing so well until mid-July.

For comparison, here are the numbers from last December:

Week New Cases Infectious In Hosp Dead/Week New/100K
12/15 207 1059 78 3 46.0

12/8 125 700 50 2 27.8

12/1 50 394 39 2 15.1

The columns are:

Week	New Cases	Infectious	In Hosp	Dead/Week	New/100K
12/15	207	1059	78	3	46.0
12/8	125	700	50	2	27.8
12/1	50	394	39	2	15.1

The day (Tuesday)
The number of new positive COVID-19 tests reported for the day (slightly ajusted to be representative in case of spikes up or down)
The number of still infectious cases (people tested positive and not yet cleared by a negative test)
The number of people with COVID-19 in our hospitals (and in ICU now)
The number of people who died from COVID-19 this week
The number of new infections per day per 100,000 population averaged over the last week.

That last column is what I use for comparisons between different places.

The Short Digest

As you can see, we have a rapid rise in COVID-19 here in Santa Barbara County. We still have ICU beds.

While we have more sick people, the number of deaths has not gone up. This will change very quickly, if we do not have ICU beds.

So be very careful, just like last winter. Wear a mask if you are within 6 feet of people who do not live with you.

So what happened? This annotated graph gives one read.

Annotated national curve. (Click to enlarge)

But my understanding is this: With 65-70% of the population vaccinated, we had achieved an amount of herd immunity, where outbreaks would die down and not grow and spread. But then the Delta variant of the virus took over, which was twice as infectious. Where 65-70% vaccination rates (i.e. 30-35% unvaccinated) was enough for the "old" virus, 83-85% (i.e. 15-17% unvaccinated) would be required to achieve the same stability, and we just do not have that, so long as we cannot vaccinate young children. We can mitigate this by distancing and mask-wearing, but if we do not do that, we see the curve rising rapidly.

As of today ...

FDA has granted full approval to the Pfizer vaccine. This makes it easier to mandate vaccinations for public employees.

Locally, new cases have dropped very slightly, but hospitalizations and ICU occupancy is still creeping up.

In "red" states with low vaccination rates (Mississippi, Louisiana and Florida) hospitals are beginning to saturate. A number of republican governors have banned the local health departments and school districts from requiring masks, so it will be very hard to reverse the trend. And there are reports that the nurses in these states are burning out and recruiting to replace them is a very uphill batle.

Footnotes

Full data from July 2021 to date

(End of page)